According to Sumit Ritolia, Senior Manager-Modelling at Kpler, a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to provide the quickest relief to India’s liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) supplies, while crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are likely to see a more gradual normalisation as the country has already adapted to months of disruption through diversification and alternative supply routes. Ritolia said, “reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would represent a major milestone for global energy markets, but the impact on India is likely to vary significantly across commodities. While India remains one of the largest importers of Middle Eastern hydrocarbons (crude, LPG, and LNG), crude and LNG imports have proven relatively resilient throughout the disruption, unlike LPG, which has been the most severely affected. Under our base case of a gradual reopening from early July, the initial focus will be on clearing trapped cargoes and restoring shipping flows before Gulf exporters can materially increase exports.”
