A fast-moving Houthi offensive in Yemen has handed the Iran aligned militants leverage over one of the Middle East’s most important waterways, creating a fresh headache for President Trump as his war with Iran stretches into its seventh month.
The Houthis have been pushing south along Yemen’s coastline, edging closer to control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, sometimes called the “Gate of Tears,” which sits at the entrance to the Red Sea. Gaining ground there would give Iran added influence over both of the region’s key oil shipping routes.
A New Flashpoint at Perim Island
On Friday, Houthi fighters reached the island of Perim, positioned in the middle of the strait between Yemen and Africa. That development spells trouble for Saudi Arabia, which has been routing much of its oil exports through Red Sea ports ever since the war effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula.
The timing is especially awkward for Trump, whose approval ratings are already sitting at record lows as he searches for an exit strategy from the broader conflict. His latest move has been an economic pressure campaign aimed at squeezing concessions out of Iran. Meanwhile, elevated U.S. gasoline prices tied to the war are threatening Republican control of Congress ahead of the November midterms, even as Iran continues to resist despite significant military and economic damage.
Why Getting Involved Is So Risky
Washington can’t simply ignore the threat of the Houthis shutting down the strait, since doing so would send energy prices climbing and disrupt global trade. But jumping into a fight against a group that has already outlasted previous offensives from both Saudi Arabia and the United States would be a risky undertaking for a U.S. military already stretched thin by the Iran war.
Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, called Trump on Thursday to request direct U.S. military assistance against the Houthis, according to three sources who spoke to Reuters. The response from Washington was that it would not intervene directly for now, though it would offer intelligence support.
Trump confirmed the call on Saturday and added that the Houthis themselves had also reached out to his administration, asking that the U.S. stay out of the conflict directly. A senior Trump administration official wouldn’t answer specific questions on the matter, but said U.S. priorities center on protecting national security interests, including freedom of navigation through the Red Sea, while pushing regional partners to take the lead on managing security challenges in their own backyard.
Saudi Arabia, Iran and the Houthis all declined to comment when reached. Iran’s foreign ministry did release a statement Thursday arguing that the Yemen conflict can’t be resolved through blockades or military action against the Houthis, calling instead for dialogue, though it stopped short of addressing Iran’s own involvement in the situation.
Two Chokepoints, One Strategy
Iran already responded to earlier U.S. and Israeli strikes by disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, a passage that once carried roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply before the war began. Should the Houthis succeed in closing Bab el-Mandeb as well, that would deal a second major economic blow, this time threatening another 7 percent of global petroleum supplies and around 12 percent of global trade.
Trump is now facing a difficult decision: commit U.S. forces and limited air-defense resources to rolling back the Houthis, or step aside and let Saudi Arabia, its allies, and Yemen’s southern based government handle the fight on their own. The Houthis have held Yemen’s capital for 12 years now, and a Saudi led military campaign has so far failed to remove them.
The Cost of Getting Involved
Choosing to confront the Houthis would also mean scrapping an arrangement Trump reached last year, in which the U.S. agreed to stop bombing the group in exchange for the Houthis halting attacks on Red Sea shipping. Breaking that deal would likely put U.S. forces back in the crosshairs of missile attacks launched from Yemen.
Taking on the Houthis would pile even more pressure onto an already overstretched U.S. military. A renewed fight could demand substantial naval and aerial resources, along with intelligence assets needed to track Houthi positions that have shifted considerably since last year.
And if U.S. Navy ships and aircraft end up having to intercept Houthi drones and missiles, that could further deplete already limited stockpiles of American munitions and air-defense interceptors.