With midterm elections just 10 weeks away, Republican lawmakers and strategists are growing increasingly worried that President Donald Trump’s trade dispute with Canada could hurt the party’s chances of holding onto Congress. Trade negotiations between the United States and Canada fell apart in late August. American officials blamed Ottawa for making demands they considered unreasonable, while Canada accused U.S. negotiators of trying to rework the agreement at the last minute.
Democrats are currently favored to retake the House and have a real shot at flipping the Senate as well. That has Republicans concerned that economic fallout from the tariffs, particularly in border states, could tip close races in the Democrats’ favor.
Republican consultant Mike Madrid did not hold back when describing the political damage, telling Newsweek that Trump’s tariffs on Canada would be a major factor behind Republican losses in competitive states and districts. He called the duties “wildly unpopular” and labeled them “political kryptonite” for the party.
“That Canada is a target and that he’s made this a personal fight with our closest ally is madness in the closing days of an election you’re already going to lose by big margins,” said Madrid.
The White House is standing firm. Spokesman Kush Desai told Newsweek that Trump intends to keep following through on what he described as a clear mandate from voters to protect American workers and reduce costs for families.
The Numbers Behind the Worry
Election forecasts cited by Newsweek from Race to the White House give Democrats a 79 percent chance of winning the House and 58 percent odds of taking the Senate. Notably, several of the most competitive states this cycle, including Michigan, Ohio and Texas, are also among those expected to feel the economic sting of the tariff dispute.
Longtime Republican pollster Whit Ayres, who has worked on GOP campaigns since the early 1990s, pointed out that the political danger is especially high in states near the Canadian border and those with strong trade ties to Canada.
Some Republicans Speak Out
The growing unease has pushed some GOP lawmakers to publicly break with the president on trade policy. Maine Senator Susan Collins told reporters in August that imposing new tariffs on Canada was a mistake, saying she wants to see a return to the friendly, mutually beneficial relationship the U.S. has traditionally had with its northern neighbor.
Collins’ Democratic opponent, Troy Jackson, is using the issue against her. A spokesperson for his campaign said Jackson spent much of his life working near the Canadian border and understands how vital that relationship is to Maine’s economy, framing Trump’s tariffs as a tax on Maine families and small businesses.
Collins has not been silent on the issue either. Her office told the publication that she successfully lobbied the administration to exempt road salt and cement, both essential for Maine winters, from the latest round of tariffs. Still, in a statement issued Tuesday, Collins said the tariffs that remain in place will raise costs for Maine families and create uncertainty for local businesses.
Collins isn’t alone among Republicans calling for a cooler approach. House Speaker Mike Johnson was quoted by Bloomberg this week saying that getting back to the negotiating table matters a great deal for both countries.