“They think that as the Trump administration did … that basically degrading and destroying enemy military assets will suddenly create a new political horizon,” Pinfold told Al Jazeera.
But the opposite has been true in Lebanon, he argued.
The Lebanese government has been far more willing to constrain Hezbollah than past ones, but Israeli escalation – “for example striking civilian neighbourhoods in Beirut … the expulsion of over one million Lebanese citizens” from their homes – has undermined the leadership who “look weak” negotiating with Israel while under fire, he said.
“It legitimises the message that you hear from Iran and Hezbollah, that they are the true protectors of the Lebanese people, that they are the resistance movement,” said Pinfold.
“And that’s exactly what we saw here with Iran’s power play. They want to get back to negotiations with the Americans, I believe, but at the same time they want to show the Lebanese people that they’re the ones who stopped Israel [from] escalating, that they’re the ones who managed to set new rules of the game in Lebanon – not the Lebanese government negotiating directly with the Israelis.”