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None of this makes Datia a turning point, and it’s worth saying so plainly. Turnout tells its own cautionary story. Just under 71.5% of voters showed up, well below the 80.2% of the 2023 assembly election. Lower participation in a single mid-term contest is a thin base to build a big theory on. By-elections are also famously local — they turn on the candidate, the caste arithmetic, a temple town’s own concerns — far more than on any statewide wave. The presence of a serious third contestant from the Azad Samaj Party, pulling a meaningful chunk of votes, is a reminder that this was a local three-way fight, not a clean referendum on the government.