German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is facing a difficult night in two state elections, with exit polls indicating strong gains for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and a lead for the left-wing Die Linke party in Berlin.
The AfD is projected to win in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern with 38% of the vote, according to an exit poll by Germany’s public broadcaster. The result comes just two weeks after the party recorded its strongest performance in Saxony-Anhalt, where it won 44%.
Merz’s CDU is projected to receive 5% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, placing it close to the threshold for representation in the state parliament.
In Berlin, Die Linke is leading with 26%, followed by the CDU and the Greens, according to exit polls. The AfD is projected to finish fourth with 13.5%, up from 9.1% in the capital’s 2023 state parliament election.
Merz described the results in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a “disaster” in a speech following the release of the exit polls.
However, the chancellor defended the need for reforms to address Germany’s economic difficulties and social divisions. “The answer cannot be to go back to the good old days,” he said.
AfD Celebrates Gains
AfD co-leader Alice Weidel welcomed the projected results, telling CNN that her party was “clearly the new people’s party in Germany”.
“We have overtaken the CDU, and people want a change of policy,” Weidel said.
She described Merz as “strongly damaged” and added: “I believe the CDU cannot continue with Friedrich Merz, with a weak chancellor.”
The projected result in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern would represent a major challenge for Merz’s party. Before Sunday’s elections, the CDU’s worst state election result was 9% in Bremen in 1951, according to the report.
The outcome also follows the AfD’s historic victory in Saxony-Anhalt, where it secured 44% of the vote. That result intensified questions about Merz’s political standing and the future of his government.
The AfD campaigned in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern on opposition to immigration, calls for mass deportations of undocumented migrants, an end to military aid for Ukraine and closer relations with Russia.
The party’s campaign also sought to tap into dissatisfaction over economic inequalities and the performance of Merz’s government. Its candidate for state premier previously compared the party’s approach with the Trump administration’s “America First” agenda.
The election was also a test for the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) and state premier Manuela Schwesig, who has governed Mecklenburg-Vorpommern since 2017.
The SPD was projected to receive 36.5%, placing it just behind the AfD, according to the exit poll.
Schwesig, the first woman to serve as the state’s premier, campaigned against another breakthrough by the far-right party. At her final rally, she warned of “dark clouds” in reference to the AfD.
Her campaign focused on jobs, education and social cohesion.
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern faces a shortage of skilled workers, driven in part by an ageing population and declining birth rates. Around 50,000 people from an immigrant background work in the state, according to Reuters, contributing to its economy amid growing anti-immigration sentiment.
Housing Dominates Berlin Election
The political contest in Berlin has centred on different concerns, with housing affordability emerging as a key issue. The election was expected to be a close contest between Die Linke and the CDU. Die Linke’s projected lead stood at 26%, according to exit polls.
Berlin has experienced rising rents over the past decade and faces a significant projected housing shortage in the coming years.
The results in both states are expected to shape the political debate around Merz’s leadership, the CDU’s electoral position and the growing support for the AfD.