For India, El Niño represents far more than a meteorological anomaly. It is increasingly viewed as a macroeconomic risk capable of influencing agricultural output, inflation, energy demand, labour productivity, and long-term growth prospects. Historically, El Niño episodes have been associated with below-normal monsoon rainfall over large parts of the Indian subcontinent. Weaker monsoons reduce soil moisture, constrain reservoir levels, and diminish crop yields, particularly for water-intensive crops such as rice, sugarcane, and pulses. The consequences extend beyond the farm sector, weakening rural purchasing power and affecting industries that depend on agricultural demand.
