The Indian Stock Markets are going to be driven by multiple factors for the coming week including both the domestic and global changes. The key developments that are likely to impact the markets are going to be crude oil prices, US-Iran conflict, response of foreign investors and the behaviour of rupee.
Last week, the stock market ended on a softer note. Investors decisions were shaped largely by the twin overhang of rising energy costs and firm global yields. Sentiment stayed defensive through much of the week as crude oil pushed past the psychologically important ninety-dollar mark.
US-Iran conflict:
New US economic sanctions are likely to be announced on Monday that could impact Iran’s most important trading partners including China. Ahead of the announcement, United States and Iran exchanged defiant messages.
Further, the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will hold a press conference on Monday.
Foreign investors:
Dr. V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited said, “FPI buying trend is continuing. Total FPI buying till 22nd August stood at Rs 24543 crores, of which, Rs 14117 crores was through exchanges and Rs 9426 crores was through “primary market and others category”.
The factors that are driving the FPIs back to the Indian market are: earnings growth revival as reflected in Q1 results, FPI withdrawal from the ‘chip trade’, rupee stability and the impressive growth prospects of companies in the broader market. A significant trend in the market is that FPIs are not buying attractively valued leading large banking or IT stocks; instead they are selectively buying mid-caps despite elevated valuations, he said.
Bond yields:
Bond yield on the 10-year benchmark bond is also going to be an area of focus. The yield rose to a two-month high of 6.88% before retreating to 6.85% at the close of the session.
Sentiment turned cautious amid anticipation of a policy rate hike at home and escalation of the West Asia conflict. The yield jumped nearly 10 basis points during the week, making it the highest weekly rise this fiscal.
US Federal Reserve:
The Chairman of US Federal Reserve Kevin Warsh’s speech will also be another key event. Investors continue to seek clarity on whether and when US interest rates might rise.