President Trump is losing ground even in territory that should be friendliest to him. New polling shows his approval rating has turned negative in 11 states he carried comfortably in the 2024 election, a warning sign for Republicans as they head into November’s midterms.
As of July 30, Trump‘s approval sits at 36 percent nationally, while 59 percent disapprove of his performance, putting his net approval at a steep negative 24 points, according to Newsweek’s report on Civiqs’ ongoing online tracking poll. That poll draws from registered voters and has collected more than 120,000 responses since Trump returned to office on January 20, 2025.
Red States Turning Cold
What makes this trend notable isn’t just the national number, it’s where the softening is happening. When Trump took office for his second term back in January 2025, his approval rating was positive in every single state he had won by 10 points or more in the 2024 race against Kamala Harris. That’s no longer true. At least 11 of those states have since flipped into negative territory.
The timing offers some clues about what’s driving the shift. In several states, Trump’s numbers turned negative around the time he announced tariffs on U.S. trading partners back in April. In others, including Kentucky and Missouri, the drop lines up with his announcement of a war with Iran in February.
Where the Numbers Stand Now
Alaska shows the steepest decline among the group, with a net approval of negative 14, reflecting 40 percent approval against 54 percent disapproval. Iowa sits at the same negative 14 mark, with 44 percent approving and 49 percent disapproving.
Texas and Ohio both come in at negative 13. In Texas, 40 percent approve of Trump while 54 percent disapprove. Ohio shows a similar split, with 40 percent approval and 53 percent disapproval.
Florida follows closely behind at negative 12, with 42 percent approval and 54 percent disapproval. South Carolina sits at negative 9, with 42 percent approving and 51 percent disapproving.
Missouri comes in at negative 7, with 44 percent approval and 51 percent disapproval. Louisiana stands at negative 4, with 45 percent approving and 49 percent disapproving.
Kentucky and Nebraska are both at negative 3. Kentucky shows 39 percent approval against 53 percent disapproval, while Nebraska shows 45 percent approval against 48 percent disapproval.
Mississippi has the narrowest gap of the group, sitting at just negative 1, with 47 percent approving and 48 percent disapproving.
Even His Strongest States Aren’t Immune
The softening isn’t limited to states now underwater. Even in the places where Trump remains most popular, the trend line is heading in the wrong direction. Wyoming, his strongest state, started his second term with a net approval of positive 45. That figure has since fallen to positive 19. North Dakota tells a similar story, dropping from positive 31 down to positive 19 over the same stretch.
Why This Matters for November
These shifts carry real political weight heading into the midterms. Control of Congress hangs in the balance, and Republicans are working to hold onto narrow majorities in both the House and Senate for the rest of Trump’s term. Even modest changes in voter sentiment, especially in states that have historically leaned Republican, could end up shaping how competitive individual races become this fall.