As India set to celebrate its Independence Day next month (August 15), millions of people are also gearing up for one of the biggest shopping seasons of the year. Every year, smartphone brands and e-commerce platforms announce massive Independence Day sales. They offer attractive discounts on electronics especially smartphones and laptops.
For many buyers , August is the best time to upgrade to a new phone, with the hope of getting the biggest price cuts of the year.
However, 2026 may be different. The ongoing global memory chip shortage and rising chip prices could make mobile phones more expensive.
This means brands may have less chance to offer the huge discounts Indian consumers are used to get during festive sales.
According to Reuters, global smartphone shipments in the second quarter of 2026 fell to their lowest level in 13 years as rising memory prices forced smartphone makers to increase prices and reduce production.
The report said the shortage of DRAM and NAND memory chips has become one of the biggest challenges for the consumer electronics industry this year.
For us, this means the festive sales they have been waiting for may not be as attractive as previous years.
Why Are Memory Chips So Important?
Every smartphone uses memory chips. These include DRAM, which helps apps run smoothly, and NAND flash storage, where users store photos, videos, apps and files.
Over the past few months, prices of these memory chips have increased rapidly because of supply shortages and growing demand from AI servers and data centres.
With memory becomes more expensive, OEMs have to spend more to build every phone.
Brands can either bear these higher costs themselves or pass them on to buyers. Most experts believe companies will now have little choice but to raise prices or offer smaller discounts.
Discounts May Not Completely Disappear
Abhilash Kumar, Lead Research Advisor (Director) at SAG, believes brands will continue participating in festive sales but with a more cautious strategy.
“Memory prices are rising sharply across the smartphone industry, which is putting pressure on pricing. However, brands will still participate in the festive season sales. That said, the promotional intensity is likely to be lower than in the past couple of years. Discounts are believed to be less and may be more selective, with offers limited to lesser models. As a result, we forecast festive season sales volumes to decline compared to previous years,” he told Times Now Tech.
Instead of heavy price cuts across the portfolio, smartphone brand may reserve attractive offers for selected smartphones while protecting margins on their newer launches.
However, not every smartphone company is expected to face the same level of pressure. According to Kumar, Apple may offer good discounts on some of its older iPhone models.
“Among brands, Apple older models might still have attractive offers similar to last year as Apple enjoys vertical integration and have procured advanced memory deals. The real price increase is believed to be on newer iPhones and older models might remain insulated,” he said.
According to industry experts, the biggest impact is likely to be felt in the affordable smartphone market.
Budget and mid-range smartphones usually operate on lower profit margins. This gives brands very little room to offer aggressive discounts when component costs increase.
Prabhu Ram, VP-Industry Research Group at CyberMedia Research (CMR), says the memory shortage is already changing how brands are planning festive promotions.
“The memory chip shortage is a real constraint on festive pricing this year. Brands are absorbing higher DRAM and NAND costs, which is already translating into fewer low-end offerings and a stronger push toward higher-margin Pro models instead of aggressive discounting. At CyberMedia Research (CMR), our channel checks indicate that festive discounts on budget and mid-range phones will be shallower than in previous years,” Ram said.
“Brands will rely more heavily on EMI, exchange offers, and bundled schemes to protect affordability without slashing sticker prices. The real cushion for consumers will come from financing and exchange value rather than outright price cuts — so headline discount percentages may look familiar, but the effective value underneath could be thinner,” he added.
Instead of reducing smartphone prices, brands are expected to focus on financing options. No-cost EMI, bank cashback, exchange bonuses and bundled offers could become the primary tools to attract buyers.
This strategy will allow OEMs to maintain higher selling prices while making monthly payments appear affordable. While these offers can still help buyers save money, they may not provide the same value as direct price cuts.
Smartphone Prices Could Rise Further
Counterpoint Research also expects the memory shortage to continue affecting India’s smartphone market throughout the festive season.
Tarun Pathak, Research Director at Counterpoint Research, says memory costs have increased dramatically over the past year.
“Persistently high memory prices are expected to remain a key challenge for India’s smartphone market through the upcoming Independence Day and festive sales. Memory costs have already risen nearly 4x and are expected to exceed 5x their earlier levels, significantly increasing smartphone production costs and putting sustained pressure on OEM margins.” he told Times Now Tech.
“As a result, we expect smartphone prices during the festive season to be around 20-25 per cent higher than last year, making it increasingly difficult for brands to offer the deep discounts seen in previous festive seasons, particularly in the mass-market segment where margins are relatively thin,” Pathak stressed.
According to him, while bank offers, cashback, exchange bonuses, and no-cost EMI schemes will remain key promotional tools, they are unlikely to fully offset the price increases already implemented by brands. This means consumers are still expected to pay more than during last year’s festive sales.
He expects this year’s festive sales to rely less on direct price cuts and more on financing-led promotions to support demand.
“The impact will be most visible in the sub-INR 20,000 segment, where discounts are likely to remain measured and average selling prices above last year’s festive levels. We also expect OEMs to adopt a more selective launch strategy, prioritising higher-margin models and portfolio optimization over aggressive new product launches during the festive season,” Pathak added.
Overall, if you are looking at an older flagship device, especially older iPhone models, waiting for Independence Day sales could still make sense as some offers may continue. However, if you are planning to buy a newly launched smartphone or a budget Android device, you may have to wait for a little long.
As of now, the ongoing memory chip shortage has forced brands to rethink how they approach festive sales. Instead of massive price cuts, you are more likely to see financing offers, limited discounts and exchange bonuses.