Marine Le Pen has widened her lead in the race for France’s presidency, with fresh polling showing her support growing just days after judges opened the door for her to run for a fourth time. A survey conducted by Elabe for BFM TV and La Tribune Dimanche put Le Pen’s first round support between 34 percent and 35.5 percent, if the election were held this coming Sunday. That marks a three point jump from where she stood back in March. The poll surveyed 1,503 adults and was carried out online on Thursday and Friday, with a margin of error ranging from 1.4 to 3.1 percentage points.
Former centrist Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, who served under President Emmanuel Macron, emerged as her nearest competitor, pulling in as much as 19 percent support in one of the six scenarios pollsters tested. Jean-Luc Melenchon, who leads the far-left France Unbowed party, generally landed in third place, though that changes in one particular matchup where former centrist premier Gabriel Attal also enters the field.
Regardless of the lineup, the polling suggests Le Pen would come out on top against any of these three rivals. France will go to polls in April next year. As of now, it is too soon to tell if she’ll be able to sustain this momentum.
Where Her Support Is Strongest
Bernard Sananes, who heads Elabe, offered some insight into what’s driving the shift, whilst speaking with Bloomberg. He noted that Le Pen currently leads among retirees and voters in big cities, and that she’s running roughly even with Philippe among working age voters. According to Sananes, the demographic groups that once posed a challenge for her are no longer a weak point in her coalition.
How the Legal Battle Unfolded
This polling boost comes right on the heels of a major legal development. On Tuesday, Le Pen officially announced she would run, a move that became possible after the Paris court of appeals made its ruling. The court upheld her conviction connected to the embezzlement of European Union funds, but it cut down the length of her ban from holding office, shrinking it from five years to just 15 months. Since that shortened window has already passed, she is now free to campaign.
Judges also imposed a one year jail sentence, though they specified it would not involve actual prison time. Instead, she is expected to wear an electronic tag for part of that sentence. Le Pen has said she intends to take her case further by appealing to France’s highest court.